ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Thursday October 7, 2004
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FINALLY, SOME WEEKEND RAIN: After three weeks with no rain in most
communities, I believe everyone would be receptive to some rain over the
weekend. Friday should remain dry-a pleasant autumn day, but clouds will
increase by Saturday with a chance of rain. Sunday should be cloudy most of
the day with periods of rain and we believe that is the day we will get the
most rain. However, the rain should also linger into Tuesday. Temperatures
over the next several days will be plenty nice with highs in the mid 70s.
Reason for the rain? It's due to a broad low pressure area over the western
Gulf of Mexico. It has become slightly better organized and there is a
potential for some tropical development over the next day or two. It is
expected to move northward and that's where some confusion sets in. Some of
the models swing it toward the NE passing across coastal Alabama and into
North Florida by Tuesday morning. However, the model we're leaning on mostly
today will carry the low inland passing northward through Louisiana and to
near Memphis by Monday morning. This will keep Alabama on the east side of
the low and give us a pretty decent chance of rain.

TONS AND TONS AND TONS OF RAIN: We all know that water is heavy. You old
timers who used to lug a #3 washtub full of water toward the scrub board and
Octagon soap, can vouch for that. But today we want to try to estimate how
many tons of rain fell on Alabama during Hurricane Ivan. I added up the
24-hour totals from 59 locations in Alabama that had a rain gauge. I
averaged it and it was 5.70 inches per location. Let's round that down to 5
inches.

The weight of one square mile of water one inch deep is 72,516 tons. There
are 52,423 square miles in Alabama, so one inch of rain over the entire
state would weigh 3,801,492,265 tons. Let's round that off to 3.8 billion
tons per one inch of rain and since we had an average of 5 inches or more,
that would be approximately 19 billion tons of rain. We want to be sure and
thank Stephen Fancher, Associate Director of Institutional Research,
Planning and Assessment at the University of Montevallo for his input
concerning the weight of rain per square mile and how many square miles
there are in Alabama.

MY TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD: Lots and lots of playtime with little Miss
Molly overnight. I got her sleeping hours mixed up again. She took a long
evening nap and then went on a playing binge by herself toward midnight. She
has so much energy it explodes at times. We could hear her running through
the house at breakneck speed turning corners. You could hear her claws
gripping the carpet and she skidded across the hardwood foyer at times. She
did that for 15 minutes and then went kerplop and sound asleep...on our
early morning walk today, no sunrise because of low clouds...we saw 17
crows...yes, I count them...Molly and I like to think that they are putting
on an air show for us...Molly was mostly interested in foraging. I kept
urging her to move on...so I finally said, "Look at me Molly." I should not
have used the word "look". It is the buzz word of the highest order for her,
like a code yellow or code purple. She has latched on to that word to mean
someone is invading her territory...so she took off at breakneck speed and I
barely avoided another whiplash. Life goes on with lots of ups and downs at
times...but most enjoyable just the same.

J. B. Elliott
jbelliott@charter.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Partly cloudy.
Morning Low 58
WIND: E 4-7

FRIDAY
Partly sunny with pleasant temperatures.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 77
WIND: SE 7-14

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
Morning Low 60 Afternoon High 74
WIND: SE 7-14

SUNDAY
Cloudy and breezy with periods of rain.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 74
WIND: SE 8-16

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with still a chance of rain.
Morning Low 60 Afternoon High 75
WIND: S 8-16

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