ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday October 2, 2004
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GOOD AFTERNOON: as you look at weather maps and satellite photos of the
southeastern United States this afternoon, you are sure to notice a
relatively fast westerly upper level flow. Expanding that view, you notice
a huge split flow in the upper atmosphere, flowing around high pressure
centered over Utah and Wyoming. That westerly flow over Alabama and the
Deep South is part of the southerly branch of that split flow.
Closer to the surface, winds are shifted to the northwest behind a weak
frontal system that is pushing across the region. The front extended from
near Huntsville to west of Birmingham at early afternoon. About the only
thing you will notice with the frontal passage will be the wind shift. The
significantly drier air is about 200 miles behind the front, where dew
points have dropped into the upper 50s across western Tennessee. That drier
air will arrive in here late tonight and Sunday. Tomorrow should feature
clearing skies and temperatures rising to near 80 degrees across the area.
Perfect weather for the huge NASCAR race at Talladega.

STORM CHANCES: Radars across the South getting a light workday so far. In
East Tennessee, showers are showing up in association with an upper
disturbance. They will depart that area in time for the huge tilt tonight
between Auburn and the Vols. Things are clear across the rest of Tennessee,
Alabama and Mississippi, except for a little persistent light rain near the
northwestern corner of our state. A few light showers were trying to form
over Lamar and Fayette County earlier. Most of the activity has been over
southern Texas today, but a few showers and storms were forming over eastern
Arkansas under the cooler air aloft in the upper level trough. That cooler
air aloft means more unstable air. Those storms will continue to break out
as the trough pushes eastward, but the instability will diminish as we head
into the early evening, losing the heat of the sun. So there may be a few
scattered showers across the area during the evening hours tonight. Some of
those could affect the 'Bama game, but chances are still small. The
overnight hours should feature decreasing clouds and northwesterly winds.
Lows will drop to just above 60 degrees if that drier air gets in here in
time.

WEEK AHEAD: The front should push on to the southeast, clearing our area
and leaving us in mostly sunny conditions for Monday. A stronger cold front
will push through the area Monday night, dropping high temperatures back
into the 70s on Tuesday. This will start a dry and mild period of weather
that will last to the end of the week. The GFS continues to bring the
tropical disturbance currently over the Caribbean back to the north over the
Gulf by late in the week. Some forecaster humans are starting to buy into
that solution, taking a low pressure system to the Louisiana coast next
Saturday. The GFS tracks it eastward along the northern Gulf to western
Florida by the weekend. Any of these scenarios will likely spread rain
back into the state for the weekend.

TROPICS: Speaking of the tropics, up and down Lisa was still a hurricane at
late morning, but will lose her tropical characteristics tonight as she
races to the northeast over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Bill Murray
billmurray@worldnet.att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Slight chance of a shower through evening, then partly cloudy.
Morning Low 60
WIND: Light N

SUNDAY
Clearing skies. A little cooler.
Morning Low 60 Afternoon High 79
WIND: N 5-10

MONDAY
A good deal of sunshine. A few clouds overnight.
Morning Low 53 Afternoon High 84
WIND: N 5-10

TUESDAY
Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler again.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 78
WIND: N 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Abundant sunshine.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 79
WIND: NE 5-10

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Tonight on ABC 33/40

6:00pm News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Lost
9:00pm Wife Swap
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News/Sports Final
10:35pm Providence

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