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Saturday, October 09, 2004

ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Saturday October 9, 2004
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...Hello Matthew...

GOOD MORNING! One week ago this morning, this was the final sentence in my
narrative about this week's weather: the GFS hints at a tropical
disturbance moving northeast over the Gulf that could affect our weather by
the weekend. It is just amazing to me that the numerical weather prediction
models are as good as they are. I know that we grumble and fuss about them,
but the scenario the GFS has been painting for almost ten days now is coming
true. Now, just where Matthew goes and how strong it will become is a point
of conjecture, so let's get started.

WHERE GOETH MATTHEW? That may not be the most important question for our
weather. The more important question may be where goes the non-tropical low
that is to the northwest of the tropical storm. This low is forecast to
move over southeastern Louisiana and curve northward into Mississippi. This
keeps Alabama in a southerly flow of deep moisture and means a good
drenching for much of the state. Across North Central sections of the
state, we could see two to three inches of rain. Southern sections may see
five inches or more.

Matthew will likely rotate around the first low, turning northeast and then
to the north northeast, reaching the Northwest Florida coast between
Pensacola and Fort Walton and moving up into South Alabama. The good news
is that the storm is not expected to intensify significantly and should
remain a tropical storm until landfall.

Showers have been advancing northeastward across southwestern Alabama since
last evening. That mass of rain should expand and become heavier during the
morning hours, with a steady soaking rain into Sunday, and perhaps into
Monday. Needless to say, this forecast will require lots of refinement
through the weekend. A cold front should arrive on Thursday, giving us the
coolest readings we have seen since May.

FOOTBALL FORECAST: Rain gear needed today? In Lexington, probably not. In
Auburn, yes. In Starkville, most definitely.

Bill Murray
billmurray@worldnet.att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TODAY
A steady rain sets in.
Afternoon High 71
WIND: E 6-12

SUNDAY
Periods of rain continue. Becoming a bit breezy overnight.
Morning Low 62 Afternoon High 70
WIND: SE 8-16

MONDAY
Breezy with rain likely.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 73
WIND: NE 15-25

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 75
WIND: W 7-14

WEDNESDAY
Continued mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
Morning Low 57 Afternoon High 75
WIND: W 6-12

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Tonight on ABC 33/40

6:00pm News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Liar Liar
9:00pm Desperate Housewives
10:00pm News/Sports Final
10:35pm Maximum Exposure


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