ABC 33/40 E-WARN: SPSBHM

From ABC 33/40 E-Warn:
WWUS84 KBMX 041926
SPSBHM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
222 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-051900-
AUTAUGA AL-BARBOUR AL-BIBB AL-BLOUNT AL-BULLOCK AL-CALHOUN AL-
CHAMBERS AL-CHEROKEE AL-CHILTON AL-CLAY AL-CLEBURNE AL-COOSA AL-
DALLAS AL-ELMORE AL-ETOWAH AL-FAYETTE AL-GREENE AL-HALE AL-
JEFFERSON AL-LAMAR AL-LEE AL-LOWNDES AL-MACON AL-MARENGO AL-
MARION AL-MONTGOMERY AL-PERRY AL-PICKENS AL-PIKE AL-RANDOLPH AL-
RUSSELL AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR AL-SUMTER AL-TALLADEGA AL-
TALLAPOOSA AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALABASTER...ALEXANDER CITY...ALICEVILLE...
ANNISTON...ASHLAND...AUBURN...BESSEMER...BIRMINGHAM...BRENT...
CENTRE...CHILDERSBURG...CLANTON...COLUMBIANA...CORDOVA...DADEVILLE...
DEMOPOLIS...DOUBLE SPRINGS...EUFAULA...EUTAW...FAYETTE...
FULTONDALE...GADSDEN...GARDENDALE...GREENSBORO...HALEYVILLE...
HAMILTON...HAYNEVILLE...HEFLIN...HELENA...HOOVER...HUEYTOWN...
JASPER...LAFAYETTE...LANETT...LINCOLN...LINDEN...LIVINGSTON...
MARION...MINOR...MONTEVALLO...MONTGOMERY...MOODY...ONEONTA...
OPELIKA...OXFORD...PELHAM...PELL CITY...PHENIX CITY...PIEDMONT...
PRATTVILLE...RAINBOW CITY...ROANOKE...ROCKFORD...SELMA...SYLACAUGA...
TALLADEGA...TROY...TRUSSVILLE...TUSCALOOSA...TUSKEGEE...
UNION SPRINGS...WARRIOR...WEDOWEE...WEST END-COBB TOWN...WETUMPKA...
WINFIELD AND YORK
222 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES STILL FORECASTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH AND MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 962
MB. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER (TPC) HAS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THEN
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL HURRICANE
FORECAST TRACK FOR DETAILS.

ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
HURRICANE FRANCES...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND APPEARS FREE OF ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT CHANGES MAY
TAKE PLACE AS SOON AS MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START INCREASING
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY.

...FLOODING POTENTIAL...

WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
FRANCES MOVING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE
HIGHER ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS CLOSE AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THESE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEPEND ON THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF FRANCES. THE SLOWER THAT THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES
MOVE...THE MORE RAINFALL THE AREA COULD RECEIVE.

MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE ABLE TO HOLD UP TO 3 INCHES
BEFORE FLOODING BECOMES A PROBLEM. WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH RIVER FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS
BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THIS TROPICAL EVENT.

REMEMBER...ANY SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC) AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES...SOME
WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FRANCES MOVES INLAND...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS
FRANCES WEAKENS EVEN MORE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ON TUESDAY WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES TO SOME EXTENT. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK THIS FAR OUT...PLEASE REMAIN AWARE
OF THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.



$$


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