ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday September 4, 2004
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POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR ALABAMA AHEAD: We cannot
underestimate the potential threat that Hurricane Frances may bring to
Alabama starting as early as Monday night. This is a developing weather
situation, and everyone will want to pay close attention to later forecasts
and official statements as the track of Frances becomes clearer.

FLOODING THREAT: There is a significant chance that the storm will move
slowly across Alabama on Tuesday. If it does, it will produce some
tremendous rainfall amounts. Rain amounts may average 5-10 inches across a
wide area of South and Central Alabama depending on the track of the storm,
which could cause serious flooding.

WIND THREAT: Frances is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday after crossing the Florida Peninsula. It will move west northwest
and impact the coast again somewhere between Apalachicola and Mobile. The
further west that the hurricane goes, the greater that the chance that It
will regain minimal hurricane intensity. This would obviously have a
greater impact on the coast and would potentially increase our winds
slightly, Either way, it should weaken to a tropical depression before it
arrives in Central Alabama, but winds could be 10 mph stronger if it arrives
on the coast as a hurricane. An arriving hurricane could spread tropical
storm force winds further inland that if it follows a course mainly over
land. Central Alabama could experience wind gusts over 40 mph on Tuesday.


TORNADO THREAT: Dying tropical systems are notorious for producing
tornadoes. There could be a significant threat for tornadoes across
Alabama, especially ahead and east of the storm's track late on Monday into
Tuesday.

OUR THREE DAY WEATHER: We will increasingly come under the influence of
sinking air surrounding the hurricane. This means fewer clouds and only
small chances of showers and storms on Sunday. It will be warm tomorrow,
with temperatures reaching near 90 degrees. Monday will feature increasing
clouds with showers encroaching on the area starting Monday night, along
with increasing winds.

BEACH WEATHER: Residents and visitors along the beaches of Alabama and
Northwest Florida will want to pay close attention to advisories and
forecasts over the next 48 hours as Frances heads northwest. An eastern
landfall will bring tropical storm force winds to the Panama City area with
gusts to tropical storm force westward along the coast. A landfall near
Mobile could mean hurricane force winds to the Mobile/Pensacola area, with
tropical storm force winds eastward to near Destin and tropical storm gusts
to Panama City. Weather will begin to deteriorate as early as Sunday
evening in eastern sections, depending on the track. Monday promises to be
a very bad weather day along most if not all of the Gulf Coast.

IVAN: As if Frances were not enough, we will also begin to watch the future
track of Tropical Storm Ivan, way out in the Atlantic. By Tuesday, Ivan
should be a major hurricane threatening the Lesser Antilles.

Bill Murray
billmurray@att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
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TONIGHT
Skies becoming fair.
Morning Low 69
WIND: E 3-6

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Just a slight chance of a shower or storm.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 89
WIND: NE 6-12

MONDAY
Increasing clouds. Increasing wind and rain overnight.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 86
WIND: NE 8-16

TUESDAY
Windy with rain and thunderstorms. Heavy rain and flooding possible.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 79
WIND: SE 15-30

WEDNESDAY
Rain and wind diminishing.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 85
WIND: W 7-14

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