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Thursday, August 12, 2004

ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday August 12, 2004 ===================================================================
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...The Saga of Bonnie and Charley...

GOOD MORNING! If you ever wanted to know if the good folks at the World Meteorological Organization have a sense of humor, it could have been in the list of North Atlantic tropical cyclone names. Wouldn’t it have been perfect if the “C” storm had been named Clyde? Guess they are the stuffed shirt type, huh?

WHAT ABOUT BONNIE? Our plucky little Bonnie nearly disappeared Wednesday evening, only to begin another burst of convection a few hours later. For most of the afternoon and the evening hours, the storm lost its formerly impressive tight central circulation and the Air Force plane had trouble finding tropical storm force winds. We will assume that Bonnie will stay intact as it passes over a warm water eddy in the Gulf during the favorable time of the day for convective development, despite the presence of strong wind shear. Bonnie should reach land later this morning somewhere around Panama City or perhaps a little east of there, probably as about a 50 mph tropical storm.

OK. WHAT ABOUT CHARLEY? Hurricane Charley is moving through the Cayman Island this morning. Charley is beginning to curve around the subtropical ridge of high pressure to its northeast. Charley will turn north and north northeastward, passing over Fort Myers, FL Friday afternoon, then crossing the Florida Peninsula and emerging over the Atlantic before making landfall in South Carolina again on Saturday.

WHAT ABOUT OUR WEATHER? A cold front is passing through North Alabama this morning. The front is interacting with the circulation of Bonnie in an overrunning sort of way, producing a broad swath of rainfall this morning across Central Alabama. The front will kind of wait for Bonnie to clear before pushing through the entire state. Dry and cooler air will flow into Alabama behind the front, much like last weekend. We have a good shot at breaking the record lows for Saturday and Sunday in Birmingham, as we expect 57 and 56 on the respective mornings. The record each day is 58.

Bill Murray
billmurray@att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TODAY
Rain likely this morning, ending during early afternoon.
Afternoon High 78
WIND: NE 6-12

FRIDAY
Mostly sunny. Becoming less humid.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 81
WIND: NW 6-12

SATURDAY
Cool start. Then a perfect day. Lots of sun, mild temperatures and low humidity.
Morning Low 57 Afternoon High 80
WIND: N 5-10

SUNDAY
Continued sunny skies.
Morning Low 56 Afternoon High 86
WIND: NE 5-10

MONDAY
Becoming partly cloudy.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 5-10

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