ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Friday July 30, 2004 ===================================================================

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..Watching the Gulf of Mexico...

All eyes in the weather office will be on the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. A surface low pressure area, west of Fort Myers, Florida, is forecast to develop into a tropical depression at some point today, and possibly a tropical storm by tomorrow. Most of the computer models move this system to the northwest this weekend, with a gradual turn to the north likely by early next week. Best bet now, based on a blend of computer models, is for a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane to make landfall in the general area from New Orleans to Mobile early Monday. Sea water temperatures are in the upper 80s just off the coast, so we will have to watch for rapid intensification as it approaches the coast.

BUT… We stress we are very early in the game with this tropical system, and major changes are possible in that general forecast.

ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH: Another tropical depression is expected to form today east of the Bahamas, and that system is forecast to move in the general direction of the south Atlantic coast over the weekend. This one could move ashore anywhere from Daytona Beach, Florida to Cape Hatteras, NC.

OUR WEEKEND: Tropical weather aside, there will be a general increase in moisture over the next 3 days, and we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and storms through Sunday. There will be some good breaks in the rain, and a little sun from time to time, but a few heavy downpours are also a good bet. The tropical system in the Gulf could bring a risk of heavy rain and flooding early next week if we stay on the east side of the system.

OZONE: A code yellow forecast today, meaning moderate air quality is expected.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TODAY
Increasing clouds with developing thunderstorms by afternoon.
Afternoon High 89
WIND: SE 6-12

SATURDAY
Occasionally cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 88
WIND: SE 6-12

SUNDAY
Intervals of sunshine. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 88
WIND: S 7-14

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy and breezy with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 86
WIND: S 10-18

TUESDAY
Variable clouds with a few showers still possible.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 89
WIND: W 8-16

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