ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday June 12, 2004
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GOOD AFTERNOON! Did you see that beautiful storm that popped up around 7:30
or so last night over extreme southeast Shelby County in the
Harpersville/Vincent area. The tall storm was visible from a long distance
in the mostly clear skies. It flickered with lightning as the setting sun
illuminated the huge updraft and anvil. But within forty five minutes, it
was already history, quickly raining itself out like so many pulse
thunderstorms we wee here during the summer in Alabama. Very light winds
mean that the storms cannot separate their updraft from their downdraft,
which is necessary for long lived storms. The old rule of what goes up must
come back down takes control and the huge load of moisture that has been
lifted high into the atmosphere comes dumping down in the form of heavy
rain.

A HOT ONE: Every reporting station across North Alabama was in the 90s by
early afternoon. With very high dewpoints, heat indices were approaching
and surpassing 100 degrees in many areas. This means that anyone partaking
in outdoor activities such as yard work or sports should take precautions.
Drink plenty of fluids Take frequent breaks. Avoid overexposure.

IN THE TROPICS: We will start with the tropics this afternoon since it
might have some bearing on our weather. The Gulf and Western Caribbean are
favored areas for development early in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, mainly
because those are the only places where waters are warm enough for
development. A persistent area of clouds and showers over the Northwest
Caribbean has been associated with an upper level low. This disturbed area
has pushed into the southern Gulf. The system seems to be developing
according to morning satellite photos. The morning runs of the ETA model
carry a surface low toward Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana, but they
also bring a huge swath of moisture northward into Alabama Monday and
Tuesday. The GFS carries it to our south and east, and is more limited with
its scope of moisture. We will be monitoring carefully.

THE FORECAST: High pressure in the upper atmosphere continues its dominance
of Alabama's weather this afternoon, suppressing the development of showers
and storms despite a very juicy airmass that is in place over the state.
Any areas luck enough to get under a cooling thunderstorm this afternoon or
evening will find the relief short lived as any storms that do form will
quickly rain themselves out. Tonight will feature fair skies with warm and
humid conditions. A little patchy fog will develop towards morning.
Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today with temperatures back into the
90s. We come under the influence of the Gulf system Monday, with a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms. If the system is to our west, Monday
and Tuesday could be nice and wet. If it is south and east, not so much so.
A cold front will drop into Tennessee Tuesday, but it probably will not make
it as far as our northern border. Still it could enhance rain chances then
a little also. I think we stay in the soup the remainder of the week, with
more warm and humid conditions, since there is little likelihood of the
front making it through our area.

Bill Murray
billmurray@worldnet.att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Any evening storms dissipate, then fair skies. A little patchy fog toward
morning.
Morning Low 71
WIND: Light

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered afternoon and evening storms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 88
WIND: S 5-10

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 84
WIND: S 6-12

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 85
WIND: S 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 90
WIND: SW 5-10

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