ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday June 11, 2005
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GOOD AFTERNOON: Tropical Storm Arlene is moving onshore on the Alabama
coast early this afternoon. It's a good thing, because the storm seemed to
be intensifying slightly in the last couple of hours before landfall with
thunderstorms firing on the west side of the center. Arlene was making a
jog to the north that was going to carry it toward the border between
Alabama 's Baldwin County and Escambia County in Northwest Florida.

COASTAL AFFECTS: Fortunately, Arlene is no Ivan. With lots of damage still
around on the Alabama coast and furious rebuilding underway, it would be a
shame to go through another hurricane this soon. With this early start to
the 2005 season, it will be interesting to see what the rest of the year
will bring.

Winds gusted to 45 mph at Dauphin Island and Jason Simpson estimated winds
of 45 mph in Gulf Shores two hours before landfall. Jason also reported
that water levels on the beach had risen two feet since early this morning.
Tides of 3-5 feet above normal are likely near and east of the landfall
point. Widespread 3-5 inch rainfall amounts will occur across Southwest
Alabama. Tornadoes have been non-existent so far in Alabama and Northwest
Florida, but a tornado watch remains in effect until 4pm for South Alabama
and North Florida. This watch will likely be shifted northward later this
afternoon.

INLAND AFFECTS: Winds will increase during the afternoon and evening hours
over Southwest Alabama as the center moves inland. South of a line from
Carrollton to Selma to Fort Deposit, winds will increase to 20-30 mph with
occasional gusts over 40 mph this afternoon and tonight. Over the rest of
Central Alabama, winds will gradually become breezy out of the southeast and
south at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts above 30 mph. The National Weather
Service maintains an Inland Tropical Storm Watch for all of Central Alabama
through 10 a.m. Sunday.

Dry air entered the circulation of the tropical storm during the morning
hours, greatly reducing the amount of rainfall associated with the system.
The heaviest rain has been north and northwest of the center, with 2-4
inches indicated from Mobile County up through Clarke and Monroe Counties.
Over West Central Alabama, as much as 1-2 inches has fallen. When all is
said and done, rainfall west of I-65 may total 3-6 inches with isolated
higher amounts. Areas east of I-65 will average 1-2 inches.

The National Weather Service has delayed issuing a tornado watch for Central
Alabama. So far the tornado threat has not materialized, but isolated
tornadoes will still be possible with the storm's circulation.

POST ARLENE: Winds and rain will diminish during the day on Sunday here in
Central Alabama. But we will be left holding the bag with a soupy airmass
in the wake of our upstart tropical storm. This will mean more showers and
storms Monday and Tuesday. A rare June cold front will move into Alabama
early on Wednesday. Behind this front, drier air will filter in the
Southeast, drying up our afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances.
Thursday, Friday and Saturday look to be nice days with morning lows in the
60s and partly cloudy skies and only tiny shower and storm chances.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Windy with showers and a few embedded showers and storms.
Morning Low 69
WIND: SE 15-25

SUNDAY
Morning showers diminishing, then a chance of showers and storms during the
day.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 80
WIND: SW 10-15

MONDAY
Partly cloudy with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SW 5-10

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storm.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 86
WIND: SW 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Showers and storms likely.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 86
WIND: SW 5-10

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