ABC 33/40 E-Forecast
ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Tuesday June 22, 2004
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I have been doing the weather on television since the summer of 1978, and
during all these years one of my great discoveries is just how much we dont
know about small scale processes that determine sensible weather. Sure,
there have been huge strides in tornado and severe thunderstorm detection,
and also a great improvement in weather forecasts that involve the larger
scale synoptic scale system that traverse the mid-latitudes in the cold
weather season. But, dealing with summer thunderstorms in a forecast is
difficult, and sometimes downright impossible. I clearly recall Bob Ferry,
the head of the Birmingham NWS office in the 70s, telling me that summer
convection was one of the greatest challenges in the weather forecast
business around here. Here I am over 25 years later basically saying the
same thing. Hopefully one of the future generations of meteorologists will
have a better grip on afternoon storms on a summer day.
After saying all of that, our forecast challenge today involves the coverage
and intensity of summer storms for the rest of the week. We will continue to
highlight a good chance of showers and storms through tomorrow night as a
deep layer of tropical moisture is now in place, a front is approaching from
the north, and a series of waves aloft approach from the west. Rain
distribution will not be even at all, but some places could easily see
between one and two inches of rain during the next 36 hours in the heavier
downpours.
We are beginning to discount the concept of drier air arriving on Thursday
(the models were screaming that message earlier this week). Getting a good
surge of dry, continental air in here in mid to late June is pretty
difficult, and it looks like the lower dewpoints will have a hard time
making it as far south as Birmingham. So, scattered showers and storms will
remain in the forecast on Thursday.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Looking a bit wet at this point. Of course, there
will be some decent intervals of sunshine along the way, but scattered to
numerous showers and storms seem likely during that three day period thanks
to rich moisture content and a series of passing troughs along the southern
edge of the westerlies.
J.B. UPDATE: Our afternoon forecaster extraordinaire, J.B. Elliott, reports
he has not been able to walk his dog, little Miss Molly, for three days now.
He is dealing with some health issues that is keeping him on the sidelines
for now, but he hopes to be back in service and back on the walking trail
later this week.
HANGING OUT THE WASH: SPC has defined a slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon for the general area from San Antonio to Memphis. The northern
quarter of Alabama has been taken out of the formal risk area since winds
aloft are relatively light. At mid-morning, a tornado was detected by radar
near Franklin, Texas. Flash flooding was in progress this morning over
southwest Arkansas, where up to four inches of rain was reported over Polk
county. Another frosty morning for Lake Yellowstone, WY, where this the
mercury dipped to 28 earlier today.
James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb
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TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 70
WIND: S 4-8
WEDNESDAY
Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 84
WIND: SW 8-16
THURSDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered showers and storms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 86
WIND: W 6-12
FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain along with scattered thunderstorms.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 85
WIND: SW 7-14
SATURDAY
Intervals of sunshine. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 86
WIND: SW 5-10
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